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指数回落,环球经济苏醒现动摇——2020年11月份CFLP-GPMI阐发

wenzhanglaili: zhongguowuliuyutuixiaojiehehui  xuanbushihou: 2020-12-09

juzhongguowuliuyutuixiaojiehehuixuanbu,2020nian11yuefenhuanqiuzhizuoyepmiwei53.9%,jiaoshangyuehuiluo0.6gebaifendian,yanxu5geyuejianchizai50%yishang。ouzhou、meizhouhefeizhouzhizuoyepmijiaoshangyueyouchabieshuipinghuiluo,yazhouzhizuoyepmijiaoshangyueyouxiaofuhuisheng。

zonghezhishubiangeng,zaihuanqiuyiqingyanxushuzhandehuanjingxia,meizhouheouzhoujifeizhoudeshouyaoguoduzhizuoyezengsujiaoshangyuejunyouchabieshuipinghuiluo,dongyuanhuanqiuzhizuoyesuxingshitouxianxiandongyao。zaiyiqinghuodeyouyongfangkongdehuanjingxia,zhongguozhizuoyesuxingtaishijinyibuzengqiang,shichanggongxujiasuzengjia,youyongzhichileyazhouzhizuoyedewenzhongqusheng。

conghuanbijiangfukan,huanqiuzhizuoyepmibingweixianxianjiaozhehuiluo,rengjianchizai53%yishang,biaomingyihouhuanqiujingjisuxingtaishibuzhuanbian,zhishizengsuyousuodongyao。danhuanqiuyiqingdeyanxushuzhanjitianxiajingjisuxingdailailebukendingxing,jingjixiaxingyalirengrancunzai。jinghegouzaoguji2021nianhuanqiugdpjiangzengjiayue4.2%,jiao9yuefen5%dezhanwangyousuojiangluo。huanqiujingjisuxingdebujunhengshizhangaijingjisuxingbudiaodeshouyaoyuanyouzhiyi。yiqingjiezhihaodediyu,suxingsulvhuijiasu。yiqingpinpindediyu,suxinglichenghuiyousuopinpin。

weileyanxubimianjingjidejisuxiahua,tianxialieguojunzaidasuanjiadacaiwuanweilidu,laiduichongxinguanfeiyanyiqingduijingjideyingxiang。anweizhengcefalidefanchoubaohanfuxianbushi、xiaoqiyezhiyuan、zhongdiancaichanchanfuhejinrongningjingdengfangmian。zengqiangduobianxiezuoyichengweiyihoutianxialieguodikangyiqingdajideshouyaogongming,guodujiandejingmaoxiezuomanmanshenru。rcepdejianli,xiangzhengzheduobianshangyexiezuojinyibubiance,duidiqujingjishenzhihuanqiujingjibubiandoujubeibiaojixingyisi。

分地区来看,显现以下特色:

非洲制作业增速放缓 PMI回落较着

2020nian11yuefen,feizhouzhizuoyepmiwei51.2%,jiaoshangyuehuiluo3.2gebaifendian,biaomingfeizhouzhizuoyezengsujiaoshangyuejiaozhefanghuan。geshouyaoguoduzhong,nanfeiheaijizhizuoyepmijiaoshangyueyousuohuiluo,niriliyazhizuoyepmihuishengzhi50%yishang。feizhouyiqingdefandanzhishifeizhouzhizuoyezengsuyousuofanghuan。shiweigouzaofeizhoudiqubanshichu11yue19ribiaoxian,feizhouquantixinzengbingliyouzengjiaquxiang。nanfeizhizuoyepmiyoushangyuede60%yishangjiangzhi52%baibu,yiqingpinpindeyingxiangshizhudaoshenfen。yiqingduifeizhoujingjichengzhangderenxingdailailemolian,ruohezaifangyihejingjisuxingzhijianyouyongjunheng,chengweifeizhoujingjikefoububiansuxingdeshouyaokaoliang。feizhoulieguoyezaijinlijingyouguochenggeleizhengceanweitizhenbenguojingji。

亚洲制作业稳中趋升 PMI延续回升

2020nian11yuefen,yazhouzhizuoyepmijiaoshangyuehuisheng0.5gebaifendianzhi51.9%,zaichuangnianneixingao,yanxu2geyuebubianzai51%yishang,yanxu7geyuehuanbihuisheng。congshouyaoguodukan,zhongguozhizuoyepmixianxianwenzhongqushengzoushi,ribenhehanguozhizuoyepmiyexianxianyanxuhuishengzoushi。yazhousandashouyaojingjitidewenzhongqushengweiyazhouzhizuoyeanwenyunzhuangongjilezhichi。chugeshizhongguozhizuoyepmizaiyanxu4geyuebubianzai51%degenbenshang,shengzhi52%yishang,zaicichuangchunianneixingao,biaomingzhongguojingjisuxingshitouwenzhongyoujin。

yazhouzhizuoyedeyanxuqushengyouzhuyuzengqianghuanqiujingjisuxingdebubian。danyeyaokandaoyiqingduiyixieyazhouguodudeyingxiangrengrancunzai,yazhoujingjisuxingdebubianxingrengjiangmianduitiaoxin。yiyinduweili,zaiyiqingyanxushuzhandeyingxiangxia,yindujingjiyiduoru“shouyixinglanshan”。2020niansanjiduyindugdptongbixiahua7.5%,jiashangerjidudetongbixiahua23.9%,yindujingjiyiyanxulianggejiduweisuo。yazhoulieguobixuyanxuzengqiangxiezuo,jinbuyazhoujingjichengzhangderenxingheyanxuxing,peihebianceyazhoujingjijiasusuxing。

欧洲制作业增速放缓 PMI有所回落

2020nian11yuefen,ouzhouzhizuoyepmijiaoshangyuehuiluo0.6gebaifendianzhi52.8%。congshouyaoguodukan,deguo、yingguo、faguoheyidalidengguozhizuoyepmijiaoshangyuejunyouchabieshuipinghuiluo。zonghezhishubiangeng,zaiyiqingyousuofandandehuanjingxia,ouzhouzhizuoyezengsujiaoshangyueyousuofanghuan,danquantihuidiaofudujueduikekong。ouzhoude“ercifengjin”bingfeizhouquanxingde,zhenduixinggengqiang、fangzhengengmingbai,shouyaozhenduipifa、canyindengbanshiye,zhizuoyezaodaoyingxiangjueduijiaoxiao。zairuxudetiaojianxia,ouzhouzhizuoyesuxingbudiaosuiyousuofanghuan,danrengjianchisuxingquxiang。

zaiyiqinghaimeiyouyouyongjiezhidehuanjingxia,ouzhoujingjiyuanjingburongbeiguan,rengmianduijiaodaxiaxingyali。yideguoweili,deguolianbangtongjijuzuixinshujuxianxian,disanjidudeguojingjizengjiayijiangdierjiduxiahuadequekougenjibuqi,danjiaokesuitongqirengxianxianjiaozhexiahua。xiangganjigoukaiduanzhanwangxianxian,benniandeguodisishidujingjiyounenggouzaicixiahua,fudujiangzai1%baibu。yuqixiageyueouzhouzhizuoyerengcunzaiyanxufanghuandenenggou,yixieguodujiangfangyixiandingbanfadanwuzhi12yuewei。weilegenghaodidikangyiqingdaji,ouzhouduoguodangjuhuidanwuxiangganbushibanfalaijianhuanqiyeyali。tongshi,ouzhouduoguozhengzaihaolingouzhoujingjisuxingjijindasuandejinkuaishixing。

美洲制作业增速放缓 PMI较上月回落

2020nian11yuefen,meizhouzhizuoyepmijiaoshangyuehuiluo1.6gebaifendianzhi57.1%。shouyaoguoduzhong,meiguo、baxizhizuoyepmijiaoshangyueyousuohuiluo,jianadazhizuoyepmijiaoshangyueyousuohuisheng,moxigezhizuoyesuiyouhuisheng,danzhishurengzai50%yixia。zonghezhishubiangeng,zaiyiqingdeyanxuyingxiangxia,meizhouzhizuoyezengsujiaoshangyueyousuofanghuan。

meiguozhizuoyezengsudehuiluoshimeizhouzhizuoyezengsufanghuandezhudaoshenfen。ismxuanbudepmishujuxianxian,meiguozhizuoyepmijiaoshangyuehuiluo1.8gebaifendianzhi57.5%。fenxiangzhishuxianxian,meiguozhizuoyegongxuzengsujiaoshangyuejunyoufanghuan,danrengjianchijiaokuaizengjia。yinweimeiguobingweizhenduiyiqingcaiyongjiaoweijunlidefengbibanfa,yishiyiqingduijingjideyingxiangjueduijiaoxiao,danxinguanfeiyanyiqingbingliyegaojubuxia。meiguofuxianshiyizaodaojiaodayingxiang。ismshujuxianxian,11yuemeiguozhizuoyecongyezhiyuanzhishujiangzhi48.4%,jiaoshangyuehuiluo4.8gebaifendian。meiguolaogongbu11yue25rixuanbudeshujuxianxian,zaitingzhi11yue21rideyizhou,meiguochuciqingqiufuxianbushirenshuhuanbihuisheng3wandaoda77.8wan,youguanshujuyanxuliangzhoupasheng。henduoshouchaxunbaifangqiyefanyingqiyeyonggongzaodaoyingxiang,gongjishangpeisongsulvyousuofanghuan。

yinweimeiguoyiqingyanxuweijianjianhuanjixiang,meiguojingjisuxingrengcunzaizuli。meilianchuhecaiwubujiushibushidanwunianmoxingjiangdaoqidegaojicunkuandasuanrengweigaojunfenqidingjian,weimeiguojingjisuxingdailailebukendingxing。meiguomogendatongxuanbude《2021nianmeiguozhanwang》zhongguji,2021niandiyijidumeiguojingjiannianlvjijiaojiangweisuo1%。gaosheng、bakelaidengduojiahuaerjiejigouyedafuxiadiaoleduibenniandisishiduhelaisuidiyijidumeiguojingjizengjiayuqi。

【yiwubianji: wuquan】

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